2013 Golden Globe Predictions: Movie Categories

The 70th Golden Globe Awards will be held tomorrow night, and I invite you to join myself and FSR’s awards guru, Daniel Walber, for live-blog commentary during the ceremony. We’ll try to keep it smart, avoid too much snark and will likely be obeying the rules of the drinking game that co-hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler have devised. It will also hopefully be more conversational than remarks we could have just tweeted, in order that I can turn the discussion around as a more readable post-event recap of the night. In case you’re too busy paying attention to your TV to also read our words simultaneously.

Anyway, you can’t head into a big awards telecast viewing without predictions for what you think will win. Daniel and I seem to agree on exactly half of the movie categories. So, maybe it won’t be such a predicable night. Check out our choices after the break and give us your own predictions in the comments. If you do better than either of us, we commend you in advance (and maybe at the end of our GG coverage too).

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Daniel: Argo.

Christopher: It seems the Hollywood foreign press are never — at least not in the past decade — interested in the lowest-grossing nominees, so that definitely excludes Life of Pi and Zero Dark Thirty (for the moment, though it just opened wide yesterday). On a couple occasions it’s the highest, but usually it’s the second-highest. That currently puts this race between the slavery movies, Lincoln and Django Unchained. Wait, no, just kidding. With global box office, the one that’s kicking serious ass in spite of not doing well in the U.S., is Life of Pi. And the HFPA loves Ang Lee. But I still go with the boring choice — and second-highest grosser — Lincoln.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Daniel: The HFPA loves musicals. If Sweeney Todd can win this award, Les Misérables should have no trouble.

Christopher: Well, they also didn’t give it to Mamma Mia!, Nine or Burlesque in subsequent years. But otherwise I agree. Les Misérables.

Best Actor – Drama

Daniel: This one’s going to be a lock all the way down to the Oscars. Daniel Day-Lewis.

Christopher: Daniel Day-Lewis.

Best Actress – Drama

Daniel: Also a clear winner here. Jessica Chastain.

Christopher: I don’t know. Even though I haven’t seen the movie, I’m going with Naomi Watts just to shake up the Oscar race.

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

Daniel: Bradley Cooper. Remember when The Hangover won Best Picture – Musical or Comedy? Hugh Jackman has a good shot here, but I think Cooper ekes it out.

Christopher: I say they should go with another choice like 2011′s Paul Giamatti, who won for an under-seen film. This year, that’d be Jack Black. But yeah, it’ll be Bradley Cooper.

Best Actress – Musical or Comedy

Daniel: Jennifer Lawrence. Even more obvious a win than Jessica Chastain. Expect more suspense on Oscar night, however.

Christopher: It’s been a very, very long time since they gave it to a non-Oscar-nominated actress when there are Oscar-nominees in the bunch (Sally Hawkins beat four other non-Oscar-nominees in 2008), and even then it was rare, so it has to be Jennifer Lawrence.

Best Suporting Actor

Daniel: I have no idea what to do with this category. I am predicting Argo for Best Picture and Affleck for Director, though, so that same wave of love for the movie might give Alan Arkin an extra push in this category.

Christopher: It typically coincides with who wins for Oscar, though, and I don’t see him getting that one. I’m certain it will be Tommy Lee Jones for both.

Best Supporting Actress

Daniel: Anne Hathaway Done deal.

Christopher: But your dream choice is Nicole Kidman, I know. I still haven’t seen Les Mis, so I don’t know what everyone is talking about. I do, however, know that everyone is talking about her. Agreed on Anne Hathaway.

Best Director

Daniel: Ben Affleck Yes, I know he wasn’t nominated for the Oscar. But the HFPA almost certainly don’t care, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Affleck kept picking up awards this season regardless of that Academy omission.

Christopher: They’ve already honored a female director (Barbra Streisand in 1983), so they don’t need to prove anything by giving it to Kathryn Bigelow, I guess, even though they didn’t give it to her for The Hurt Locker either. They’ll shake it up for the Oscars, alright, but it’s going to be with the Ang Lee, who will win his third.

Best Screenplay

Daniel: Tony Kushner. At this point Kushner is the prohibitive front-runner, and with no Original/Adapted divide in screenplay at the Globes he almost certainly takes this one as well.

Christopher: They don’t often match up with the Oscars here, though. I’m closing my eyes and naming Quentin Tarantino.

Best Original Song

Daniel: “Skyfall”. Who doesn’t want to give an award to Adele? Especially the HFPA, who love getting genuine pop stars on their stage. Remember when Madonna won for W.E.? And this time the song is actually good!

Christopher: Yeah, it’s got to be Bond. “Skyfall”.

Best Original Score

Daniel: Lincoln. This could go any number of ways, but I can’t stop hearing John Williams’s brass fanfares in my head. Dario Marianelli could pull it off (please!) but I have a sneaking suspicion this could become the blandest category of the season.

Christopher: They’re not going to continue giving the only love Cloud Atlas ever receives? They do love John Williams, even when a nice world music score is the better choice (see 2006), but I’m going with another slice of Life of Pi.

Best Animated Film

Daniel: Frankenweenie. This category is very much in flux, and the HFPA really likes Tim Burton.

Christopher: Know what movie is even less popular internationally than here? Frankenweenie. Whereas Rise of the Guardians is much more popular overseas. But it’s going to be Brave.

Best Foreign Language Film

Daniel: Amour. This is the anointed foreign film of the year. Maybe The Intouchables could sneak up and grab it.

Christopher: Right. This is where they’ve dumped it rather than including it as a Best Picture, so this is where it shall win. Amour.