The Reject Report Drops the Ball

Like a mic. Drop the ball. Walk off the stage. Oh, I guess you have to say something witty or snarky before that, don’t you? Well how about some box office analysis? We’ve got two big hitters opening up this weekend, both of them reaching for different audiences, and both of them likely to have decent openings here. The star-studded girlie night is probably going to beat the R-rated Adventures in Babysitting remake, though. Okay, it’s not really a remake, but, I mean, come on. Just look at that trailer.

That film, by the way, is The Sitter starring Jonah Hill. He’s found moderate success in his newly acquired leading man status. A $17.5m opening for Get Him to the Greek was impressive enough in the summer of 2010 despite the film not having much of a branding behind it. The Sitter is also the new film by David Gordon Green, who had good numbers with Pineapple Express ($23.2m opening weekend), not so much with Your Highness ($9.3m opening weekend). The Sitter has a good chance of coming in somewhere between those two, a little less than what Jonah Hill pulled for Get Him to the Greek. Expect The Sitter to make somewhere between $15-16m, a good showing but not enough to topple the other new release here.

Adventures in Babysitting trailer. Yep. You guessed it:

That other new release we mentioned, the one for girlie night, is New Year’s Eve. Yes, we know it’s a bit early to be dropping that particular ball, but don’t tell Garry Marshall that. Hell, he wouldn’t hear you anyway. He and screenwriter Katherine Fugate had such a massive success with Valentine’s Day, they’ve decided to take the same approach here. Get as many stars as you possibly can, throw them into different scenarios that kiiiiiiiind of tie in with each other, and let love prevail. Always let love prevail. That recipe made Valentine’s Day a nice $56.2m its opening weekend in early 2010. Don’t look for anywhere near that same number here. Still, New Year’s Eve is going to be successful. It’s going to make loads more money than any other film in release, and this time next year we’ll be highly anticipating Marshall and Fugate’s next outing, Veteran’s Day. Veterans need love too, Craig. Between $35-40m is what we’re looking for this weekend for New Year’s Eve.

You know who IS in New Year’s Eve I’m excited to see? Til Schweiger. Don’t know that name? Here’s his best role:

A slew of films open in limited release this weekend, as well, including Young Adult (opening in 8 theaters), We Need to Talk About Kevin (opening in New York and L.A.) , and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (opening in 4 theaters). All are sure to be big Oscar hopefuls with intentions of expanding throughout the end of 2011 and beginning of 2012, and all are sure to boast impressive per theater averages this weekend. Don’t, however, expect any of them to get anywhere near the top 10. That comes later after the Oscar nominations have been announced, and, if any of them don’t get a nominations, well, there’s always the DVD shelf.

Also opening in limited release are I Melt With You opening in New York and L.A., In Darkness opening in New York and L.A.,  Ladies Vs. Ricky Bahl opening in select cities, London River opening in select cities, Magic to Win opening in select cities, and W.E. opening in select cities.

Here’s how the weekend is shaping up:

1. New Year’s Eve – $36.7m NEW
2. The Sitter – $15.8m NEW
3. Breaking Dawn Part 1 – $6.4m (-61.1%)
4. Hugo – $4.7m (-37%)
5. Arthur Christmas – $4.6m (-36.9%)
6. The Muppets – $4.5m (-58.4%)
7. Happy Feet Two – $3m (-47.7%)
8. The Descendants – $3m (-36%)
9. Jack and Jill – $2.7m (-48%)
10. Immortals – $2.3m (-45.9%)

The $83.7m we’re looking at this weekend is up from last weekend. Of course, it is. There were no new releases last weekend. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 and The Muppets had to carry the whole thing themselves, and they didn’t seem up to the challenge. New Year’s Eve‘s final number could easily fluctuate either way when the actuals come out on Monday. We could be looking at another Valentine’s Day, all $50m worth of it. We could also be looking at a gross mistake on Garry Marshall’s part, and the film could tank. That’s the wacky thing about the box office, you know. You never know where that ball is going to drop. Actually, I should probably shut up now. I’m talking myself out of a job here. So, $83.7m. Write it down. Stamp it. Laminate that bad boy. It’s going in the record books. Yeah, confidence.

We’ll be back on Sunday to go over the weekend numbers.

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